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HEART TRANSPLANT SURVIVAL

A NEW ANALYSIS HELPS PREDICT WHICH HEART TRANSPLANTS ARE LIKELY TO SURVIVE, ELIZABETH TRACEY REPORTS

Who is likely to survive a heart transplant for at least a year? That question was addressed in a recent study by cardiac surgeon Ashish Shah and colleagues at Johns Hopkins.

SHAH: We've been able to, using some powerful statistical methods, start to pick out pre-transplant characteristics of patients that may predict their risk of being alive or death at a year. And that's important for a couple of reasons: one, heart transplants are a scarce resource, and two, more and more programs, all of the programs in the United States, are certainly under more scrutiny for their outcomes, and so having these tools to assess risk are important and useful. :28

Patient characteristics that help predict outcome include age, race, gender, cause of heart failure, and whether or not the recipient was on dialysis prior to surgery. Shah says taken together, these factors create a score that predicts risk of death at one year after transplant. At Johns Hopkins, I'm Elizabeth Tracey.

 



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